Russian invasion of Ukraine/Nuclear threats

https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1671421325930315776

https://x.com/AnIllarionov/status/1859388633477710143 https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1859388633477710143.html

Fear of nuclear war/WWII is unfounded:

1. There was no change in the Russian nuclear doctrine yesterday, the Kremlin just published the updated version of the doctrine on its website. No real action was taken. 2. The Russian nuclear doctrine was updated at the Russian Security Council meeting on September 25, 2024, two months ago, not yesterday. All updates were announced and widely discussed back then. This is old news. 3. The updates to the Russian nuclear doctrine are insignificant and don’t pose a threat to the US, NATO members, or any US allies. 4. Regardless of the text of the Russian nuclear doctrine, the ultimate decision depends only on Putin. 5. Putin does not follow any doctrine, rule, law, or instruction, he does what best suits him. After that, necessary documents are updated, or Kremlin propaganda interprets them correspondingly, or both. Putin’s real actions are not based on approved doctrines or any legal documents. 6. For almost three years of Russian wide-scale aggression against Ukraine, US intelligence has never detected even a single sign that Putin is preparing to use a nuclear weapon, either strategic or tactical. 7. Putin does not want to start a nuclear war. He is a coward. He is a tiger against sheep, but he is sheepish against a tiger. 8. Putin did NOTHING when Trump had US & Kurdish allies wipe out up to 300 PMC Wagner forces in Syria in 2018. Nothing when Turkey shot down a Russian bomber in 2015. Nothing when Turkey closed the Bosporus strait to the Russian Navy in 2022. Nothing when small unaligned Azerbaijan killed 5 Russian troops in 2023. Nothing when Israel bombed the Russian Khmeimim military base in Syria in 2024. 9. The chief (and possibly only) target of Putin’s blackmail is Biden. For almost three years, Putin and Biden (or those who run his administration) have played a twisted game: Putin pretends to scare Biden, Biden pretends to be scared. 10. Ukraine is not scared of Putin’s nuclear blackmail, despite defending itself from Russian wide-scale aggression for almost three years 11. So, why did Putin publish his nuclear doctrine yesterday instead of two months ago? It is a propaganda campaign to create leverage going into negotiations with Trump. 12. The Biden administration temporarily closing the US Embassy in Kyiv increased fear, adding to Putin’s leverage and undermining the incoming Trump administration. 13. Trump has made it clear he wants the Russian war against Ukraine to end. Stoking hysteria about nuclear war/WWIII allows Putin to raise the cost of any potential deal to Ukraine as well as to NATO and the US. 14. If Trump walked away from a bad deal, Putin could then use it as “evidence” for his ongoing claims that America is an imperialist war monger. 15. So, what should Trump do? He should call Putin’s bluff and not negotiate at all before January 20, 2025. There is no reason to create any bad agreement or bad deal – Putin will violate it as he has all the others. 16. Therefore, before the inauguration there should be no statements, no comments, no phone calls, no negotiations – nothing from the incoming administration. 17. Only then, once inaugurated and with his national security team in place, Trump should use the real leverage he has to deal with Putin.