Plus of majoritarian electoral system

The main advantage of a majoritarian electoral system, like the American one, is that it pushes politicians towards moderation. In order to defend the interests of the widest possible stratum of people. In an all-or-nothing majoritarian system, two parties inevitably dominate. Inside, during the primaries, candidates can spud their nuclear audience, use radical rhetoric, such as a ban on abortion (for Republicans) or a ban on weapons (for Democrats). However, when entering the national level, the winner is the one who wins over to his side more moderate voters who are in the middle of the political spectrum. This makes politicians slow down their defenses and think about what they can offer to people who are not the closest to them ideologically (those who yesterday voted for the Democrats, but today may be for the Republicans). In the US, this is called the "median voter theorem". And this explains, among other things, why it is always easier for a president to be re-elected for a second term - he starts from moderate positions there, while his opponent starts from the primaries.

But in the last 10-15 years, the median voter theorem has started to falter in the US. There was polarization, the culture war became more intense. Radicals came from all directions. On the left - all sorts of Bernie Sanders, on the right - Donald Trump got out. It was feared that this radicalization would eventually corrode American institutions and that "identity politics" (both left and right) would eventually win. Therefore, today it is gratifying to read Kynev that the US is returning a request for moderation, and in the last elections both the Trumpists and the left-wing radicals from the Democratic Party sucked:

And if you look at the candidates who lost the congressional elections, it is clear that the forecasts did not come true about the extreme candidates, who are strongly associated with Trump - the most exalted, the most scandalous. By the way, the extreme ones, those closest to the left wing, also lost against the Democrats. That is, for the first time in more than a decade, the demand for moderate candidates has increased. People are tired of extremes and populism.

Mihail Pojarsky 2022-11-11