Grigory Bazhenov/About Nord Stream
Russia produces more than 700 billion cubic meters of gas per year, exports - about 200 billion, the rest - domestic needs.
The total gas supplies to the EU from Russia are somewhere between 130-140 billion cubic meters per year. The actual capacity of NS-1 is approximately 59 billion. The rest is accounted for by other supply options.
The design capacity of NS-2 is in the region of 55 billion. It was never launched.
That is, at the moment the NS-1 is blown up, this is minus 59-60 yards per year from total exports to the EU.
If we take the draft federal budget for 2023-2025 (the explanatory note to the bill[1] was introduced on September 28, ergo was being prepared before the "incident"), we can see the following facts, estimates and forecasts for total gas supplies by years:
2021 (actual) - 205.6 billion cubic meters; 2022 (estimate) - 142 billion cubic meters; 2023, 2024, 2025 (forecast) - 125.2 billion cubic meters.
That is, the Russian Federation predicted a drop in exports even to a greater level than the departure of NS-1. The dynamics of gas production in the forecasts is first decreasing, then growing, and by 2025 should reach the level of 704.9 billion cubic meters (in 2021 - 763.4 billion).
Yes, blowing up NS-1 and NS-2 is a convenient reason to argue the position that you yourself heard today in Putin's speech. And yes, this may well be a signal, they say, there are instruments of pressure on you, gentlemen of the Europeans, take care of your infrastructure. And, of course, as I said earlier in the video[2], the Kremlin is ready to go for the destruction of the gas trade, because if it wins the chicken game, the losses in volumes can be made up and a number of benefits can be obtained (lifting a number of sanctions, incl. with NS-2), and if not, then this is only one, albeit a serious, problem for the economy (and not only) of Russia. Finally, the budget is simply prepared for such losses by restructuring tax revenues (this can be seen from the draft federal budget[3] for 2023-2025 years).
I really want to say about All in. But still, these are cui bono arguments and judgments based on circumstantial information. Not enough for a full justification.
I can't say anything else. Draw your own conclusions.
Grigory Bazhenov 2022-09-30
- ↑ explanatory note to the bill State Duma website
- ↑ WHAT IS HAPPENING IN RUSSIA'S OIL AND GAS: SANCTIONS, PRICE CEILINGS, CHINA, INDIA, EUROPE FURYDROPS, youtube
- ↑ draft budget State Duma website
