About peaceful protest (old)

One of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition - Maria Kolesnikova - has now been tried to be expelled from the country. So she made a knight's move - she tore her passport. After that, they refused to let her into Ukraine. A postcard to everyone who was ironic that in Belarus the protest leaders are without eggs.

However, the rest of the news from Belarus comes rather sad. More news about protest marches with songs and flags, but no news about strikes. The latest news about strikes comes at the end of August and the beginning of September. In general, it is not clear whether the strikes are going on and how successful they are, but it is clear that the process is not developing. About the blocking of roads and the like is also not heard.

What percentage of the population of Belarus is now participating in street protests? I have not seen exact figures, but it is obvious that the magic number of 3.5% from Erica Chenoweth has long been crossed. This means that, according to statistics, dictatorial regimes usually break after the protest passes the threshold of 3.5% of the population. However, Lukashenka's regime is not going to break. From day to day he gives out more and more inadequate escapades - either defile in body armor with machine guns, or "spy talks" - but he is not going to leave. The same was true in Venezuela.

Why is this happening? Why do street protests, even if they number in the millions, not frighten the authorities? Because power is control over the instruments of violence. The current "hybrid" states, of course, resort to many means of legitimization: imitation of democratic procedures, propaganda, and so on. But in moments of crisis, a dry residue remains: how many divisions do you have? And while Lukashenka has the loyalty of the riot police, the army, etc. he is not afraid of any street protests. Peaceful street protest poses no threat.

But after all, peaceful protests broke autocratic regimes, the third wave of democratization, is that all? Yes, that's right. But what is a "peaceful protest"? Marches with songs and flags? No, it's just what Gene Sharp called "token shares." They have their place in the structure of the protest - they are needed in order to break the spiral of silence imposed by propaganda, to show people that they are not alone against the regime and ... for nothing else. Peaceful protest is not about how to defeat clubs with flowers. It is impossible to defeat batons with flowers. A peaceful protest is about how to deprive the dictator of a power resource by cunning partisan methods, without resorting to armed confrontation. If the dictator holds this resource firmly enough, the only method here is economic pressure. Everything else, including rallies, processions, etc. is of an auxiliary nature.

Belarusians, of course, would like to wish good luck, to avoid the Venezuelan scenario. But this also applies to the Russian opposition, which in our country is traditionally divided into "moderate", which is for elections, and "radical", which about "everything will be decided by the street." In the 2000s, for example, belief in the magical figure of 100,000 dominated - they say, 100,000 will come out and the Kremlin will falter. 100 thousand came out in 2011-12. - see the result yourself. Neither elections nor the street decide anything by themselves. Decides your ability to arrange an economic collapse.

Mihail Pojarsky 2020-09-08