Farewell, Modernity

There's this infamous Weberian theory of a Modern state and its "monopoly on violence", which has become universal in social sciences. The theory doesn't necessarily imply that all violence is inflicted by government workers, it merely describes how legitimate violence exists only within the state-outlined limits and is used by those who got the official permits (e.g. security companies and PMCs) and follow the rules from above. Actually, that's what distinguishes a strong state from a weak one. Murky paramilitary groups, even "pro-regime" ones, in several Latin American countries are the textbook case of a weak state. Same goes for African field commanders and tribal militia. Behind them, the government is almost invisible.

Curiously, in short-term, authoritarian rulers may profit from such collapse of the state. An autocrat could remove his opponents using half-legal loyalist squads, but apparently, their informal status works both ways: when the time comes, such squads are conveniently removed as well. So, there are two tendencies. A state can impose total unification to endure and strengthen its power; the other tempting option is to "fish in troubled waters" to gain instant profit, which results in undermining the state's fundamentals.

Up until recently, Russian autocracy has been aiming to maintain monopoly on violence in principle. The evidence is that Russia doesn't have such thing as "titushki" («Sturdy young men in tracksuits who join forces with the police to fight anti-government protesters» — DW, 19.02.2014), at least not en masse. In 2000s, while the vertical of power was just starting to gain strength, one could face someone like "«Nashists» combat brigades" ("Nashi" was a youth political movement in Russia which declared itself to be democratic, anti-fascist and anti-"oligarchic-capitalist"), but as the screws tightened, this freedom was called off. Nowadays the opposition can be sure: when they are being beaten up, it is done only by government officials with employment records and contributions to the pension Fund. But in the area of foreign politics, the temptation of "fishing in troubled waters" was too strong for Russian government, and here came all those "ikhtamnet" PMCs with no legal status ("ikhtamnet" or "non-existing-out-there" is a phrase often used by Russian officials to react to accusations of sending regular armed forces in Crimea during its annexation in 2014).

Ukraine in 2014 was a weak state with almost all governmental structures (including the army) fallen apart. As a side effect, ex-president Viktor Yanukovych didn't have necessary state power, so he needed to rely on those "titushki" groups, who were in fact just mercenary hooligans. This weakness has given extra points to the Euromaidan supporters, when Yanukovych failed to call a significant number of loyal armed forces to suppress the protest (insignificant number was not enough, and even the "titushki" couldn't save his day). Later, this weakness was a disadvantage for the state once more, as paramilitary groups called "dobrobaty" (short for "volunteer battalions") emerged from the depths of Ukrainian society. These groups were meant to be patches in a perforated state, but actually they signaled its breakdown. When a country has "private armies" with their own interests — it's no good. But after 2014 Ukraine took a path of centralization, and "dobrobaty" were incorporated into governmental structures, slowly but steadily restoring monopoly on violence.

Nowadays in Russia, we see the opposite. Bumped into a crisis resulting from unsuccessful attempts to bite more than it can chew, the state of Russian Federation took a path of breakdown. Instead of mass mobilization into official armed forces (current Russia can't afford it due to known reasons, but Modern states usually do), we are witnessing consolidation of "private armies" of charismatic field commanders. As Modernity falls apart on our eyes, we are slipping back into the preceding era. It is no coincidence that famous "prison slang" doesn't contain any Modernity-attributed rhetorical figures such as "Homeland" or "Nation". It has a simple proposal: "Follow me and earn your freedom and wealth, or take a heroic journey to Valhalla", resembling an episode of Vikings more than real life. The last remnants of civilization: so far it is prohibited to get wasted and rape dogs, but who knows what indulgences wait ahead...

//translated by Svetlana Sokolova//

Mihail Pojarsky 15/09/2022