Problems of underestimation

In order to talk about collective responsibility and admitting mistakes, it is perhaps worth talking about the catastrophic underestimation of Vladimir Putin by the Russian opposition movement. I mean all these attempts to convince the public that Putin is such a funny thieving grandfather who amusingly knocks his legs after watching FBK videos. As a result, the funny grandfather turned out to be a Sith Lord who had been building the Death Star all this time. Moreover, it was not built secretly. You can tell in front of everyone. Back in 2007, he said that his goal was to fight NATO, and he does not consider Ukraine a state at all. Further, he repeatedly confirmed his intentions in word and deed: in 2008, in 2014, etc.

All this time there were people who were shouting about it, calling Putin either the new Hitler or the new Stalin, urging the world to stop him. These people were called "demshiza", pointed at them with a finger and twisted another finger at the temple. How many efforts have been made to convince everyone of the opposite: that Putin is not a great villain, but just a petty crook who seized upon great power. That the essence of the Russian regime is just corruption, and not the return of some kind of empire. That the regime only wants to rob the Russians in order to buy a house in Miami and enroll the kids in British schools. Whereas all imperial rhetoric and even wars are just propaganda intended for the domestic market. To "raise the rating" and steal further, sending money to the West.

Evidently, these same theses have largely been assimilated by Western politicians. Here the Russian opposition fired a shot in the penis. On the one hand, the opposition demanded tougher sanctions and an uncompromising fight against the Kremlin; on the other hand, it continued to insist that the Kremlin is just crooks and thieves. "Crooks and thieves, you say?" - for sure, the Western partners thought - "Crooks and thieves are also a kind of businessmen, their actions are rational and predictable." Therefore, houses in Miami were in no hurry to cover up, because this is an effective way to keep rational crooks on the hook. In fact, all this time we have been dealing with the cult of the restoration of the USSR within the borders of the Russian Empire (at least in the person of those who make real decisions) - this is something like religious fanatics, whose actions cannot be explained in any way even by "corrupt" economic logic . Miami houses were never the goal, they were just a side effect.

I understand why all this emphasis on corruption was popular before. On the one hand, many wanted to rally both "liberals" and "patriots" in opposition, and for this the latter needed to be explained that "getting up from their knees" was just a cover for the palace in Gelendzhik. On the other hand, we seem to have readily swallowed the pill of propaganda of the 2000s, which can be called "pelevenism" or "Surkovism." It implies that everything around is just PR and a simulacrum, and there is only one real goal - loot. However, now the moment of sobering has come. We have to admit that "demshiza" - all these funny people with handwritten posters about Putin-Hitler - were right all this time. If the government openly says "I want war" - there is no need to look for hidden meanings of the "I want dough" format there. This means that the government, damn it, wants war.

Mihail Pojarsky 2022-03-21