Russian invasion of Ukraine/Reasons: Difference between revisions
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Revision as of 03:25, 20 March 2023
Since 2003, russia planned the russian invasion of Ukraine [4]. Since 2006, russia infiltrated/trained “separatists” in Eastern Ukraine. Since 2011, it started training its troops for invasion using German provided training center. First invasion happened in 2014, second in 2022, with parts of Ukraine occupied by russian troops in-between:
“ Among other things, the Court found that areas in eastern Ukraine in separatist hands were, from 11 May 2014 and up to at least 26 January 2022, under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation.
- — European Court of Human Rights, “Grand Chamber decision Ukraine and the Netherlands v. Russia - Flight MH17 and eastern-Ukraine-conflict case partially admissible, will proceed to judgment”, January 25, 2023
Below some of the reasons, goals, objectives and enabling factors of the russian invasion of Ukraine.
Prelude: Background and enabling factors
1994: Disarmament
“ The Clinton administration ignored flashing warning signs as it pushed Ukraine hard to accept unilateral disarmament—depriving Kyiv of a deterrent against Russia while providing nothing real to replace it.
Early preparations (since 2003)
“ Illarionov was Putin’s chief economic advisor up until 2005. When he resigned, he left the country and became an outspoken critic.
He says Putin has been planning the months-long invasion for years.
“He’s had this idea, this goal for last two decades. Even when I was his advisor, I was able to watch to see myself his intentions,” Illarionov said.
Illarionov says Putin could never accept the fact that Ukraine was its own sovereign nation separate from Russia. He believes the invasion is step one in Putin’s grand plan of reunifying the whole former Soviet Union.
- Kamil Galeev, “Daily reminder that Putin’s army of invasion was trained on the Rheinmetall-built training centre Mulino. In 2014 they ‘left’ and construction was finished by ‘Гарнизон’ company, probably a proxy. 100% of its imports came from Germany, last Rheinmetall shipments coming in 2019” [5] (PDF)
- Russia started training separatists to split Ukraine in 2006 already. Then Russia’s relations with NATO were still excellent. [6]
Coup attempts
- “As a little dessert for today’s rather heavy #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce a real coup that was supposed to be done by Yanukovych and his Party of Regions, with the help of Putin. This conspiracy was revealed by a former People’s Deputy of Ukraine, Oleg Anatolyevich Tsaryov.”, March 13, 2023 (thread) (pdf)
Dam construction (2003)
Warning signs
“ “Russia attempts to challenge the territorial integrity of Ukraine, particularly in Crimea, which is 59 percent ethnically Russian and is home to the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet, must be prevented,” the memo warned five years before Russian forces would seize Crimea and 13 years before they would invade the rest of the country. The memo added that “Russia will exploit Europe’s dependence on Russian energy” and use political means “to drive wedges between the United States and Europe.”
- — George W. Bush, 2009 memo to his successor Barack Obama, From George to Barack: A Look at Secret Bush Memos to the Obama Team (Bush warned Obama about Russia’s plans for Crimea, NYT reports)
OPERATION: NOVOROSSIYA: THE HISTORY BEHIND THE KREMLIN'S NEO NAZI PYSOP IN UKRAINE
- OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 1 OF 6: INTRODUCTION TO GRU (THE NAZI PROBLEM?)
- OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 2 OF 6: SEPARATION OF DIGNITY: THE RISE OF WAGNER
- OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 3 OF 6: THE GREY CARDINAL (AND THE NEW GRU)
- OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 4 OF 6: STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
- OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 5 OF 6: AZOV: THE RUSSIAN MIRROR
- OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 6 OF 6: AZOV: THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE BOATSMAN
- thread
Territorial expansion, imperialism
Reviving the Soviet Union
“ Above all, we should acknowledge that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century.
- — Vladimir Putin, “Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation”, April 25, 2005
“ In essence, Ukraine’s ruling circles decided to justify their country’s independence through the denial of its past, however, except for border issues. They began to mythologize and rewrite history, edit out everything that united us, and refer to the period when Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union as an occupation.
- — Vladimir Putin, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, July 12, 2021
- Наступление России и нового мира
- Russian news agency deletes victory editorial
- The advance of Russia and The New World Order
- “The article “The Advance of Russia and of a New World” by Petr Akopov was briefly published in several Russian state news sites on 26 February 2022, two days after Russian forces openly invaded Ukrainian-controlled territory, but was soon deleted. Its original publication on RIA News at precisely 8:00 a.m. suggests it may have been automatically published by mistake.”, Wikipedia: On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians
- Video from the Russian MoD’s Zvezda allegedly showing Russian troops in Ukraine. Note the prominent Soviet flag on the BMP-2. (thread)
Expanding the russian empire
“ Peter the Great ... was returning and reinforcing, that is what he was doing.
Clearly, it fell to our lot to return and reinforce as well. And if we operate on the premise that these basic values constitute the basis of our existence, we will certainly succeed in achieving our goals.
- — Vladimir Putin, “Meeting with young entrepreneurs, engineers and scientists”, June 9, 2022
Genocide
Destroying Ukraine as a nation, genocide of Ukrainians
- Sergej Sumlenny, “Russia is insane about renaming streets of the occupied territories. They always massively rename everything, including the cities and towns after occupation. Here is an interesting example of their logic: re-naming list for Ukrainian Melitopol, occupied by the Russians”, February 1st, 2023, (thread) (pdf)
- Біографія Тандиру, “Thread about genocide in Ukraine Genocide cannot be strong, weak or “halfway”. It’s not a literary term; it has specific characteristics. It either exists or it doesn’t. It’s happening in Ukraine. The word “genocide” shouldn’t be used to reinforce smth.” (thread) (pdf)
Genocide of minorities from occupied Ukraine
“ Crimean Tatars enjoyed an autonomy within Ukraine. But since Russia annexed Crimea the deportation of Tatars resumed.
- — Mikhail Svetov, “An appeal to western libertarians about the war in Ukraine”, August 19, 2014
Genocide of minorities from russia
“ Putin cannot announce a general mobilization, since that would be an admission that he is losing the war. It would too overtly break the social contract according to which the poor, the Asians, and forcibly mobilized Ukrainians do the dying.
Demographic decline / kidnapping children
“ Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).
Cultural domination
- Kamil Galeev, “War of memes: why Z-war won’t end with peace Some Western analysts unfamiliar with Eastern European cultural context perceive Z-war as an accident. They presume that Russian invasion results from some sort of “misunderstanding” or mistake which can be resolved via negotiations🧵”, April 18, 2022 (thread) (pdf)
Preventing democratic concurrent models
Resource grab
- Ukrainian lithium, another cause of the Russian invasion? “The discovery of reserves of more than 500,000 tonnes of lithium, one of the key metals in the energy transition, could have amplified Putin’s interests in Ukrainian territory”
Domestic popularity boost
Fighting the West
- Dmitry Medvedev (playing bad cop, so that Putin can be good cop)
- Kremlinism/Threats against the USA
False reasons (excuses, pretexts, artificial reasons)
Some of these reasons are relevant, but not as primary reasons. Ukraine potentially joining NATO, and Euromaidan, impeded russian plans of controlling Ukraine. But they were not initial reasons for the initial goal of controlling Ukraine and putting an end to its independence and democratization — one way or another. If the Kremlin had no such plans to begin with, none of this would have been relevant. Note also the direct russian involvement behind some of those “reasons” (e.g. the consequences of the 2014 russian invasion).
- Pekka Kallioniemi, In today’s #vatnik soup I’ll discuss Russia’s disinformation and propaganda campaigning in more detail, and go through four of the main “big” themes around which most of their propaganda is based on. (thread) (pdf)
- Right so, let’s talk debunking russian nonsense. This thread will be long but I hope you stick with it. I will go through propaganda claims and debunk them and explain how best to do so. In following threads I’ll explain how better to bonk and argue. Have to walk before you run. (thread) (pdf)
- Let’s talk about the hoax that’s been perpetrated daily for 9 years and that was key to for this illegal invasion and its atrocities: Russian assertions that Ukraine has committed “genocide” against “ethnic Russians” in Donetsk and Luhansk. (thread) (pdf)
