NATO

“Russland öffnet Ukraine den Weg in die Nato”, January 2, 2005

“ Does the right to sovereignty also mean for Georgia and Ukraine, for example, that Russia would have nothing against their accession to the EU and NATO?

Sergey Lavrov: That is their choice. We respect the right of every state - including our neighbors - to choose its own partners, to decide for itself which organization to join. We assume that they will consider for themselves how they develop their politics and economy and which partners and allies they rely on.

— “Russland öffnet Ukraine den Weg in die Nato”, January 2, 2005

Founding and goals

“ It is often said that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization was founded in response to the threat posed by the Soviet Union. This is only partially true. In fact, the Alliance’s creation was part of a broader effort to serve three purposes: deterring Soviet expansionism, forbidding the revival of nationalist militarism in Europe through a strong North American presence on the continent, and encouraging European political integration.

— A Short History of NATO

• The North Atlantic Treaty, Washington D.C., April 4, 1949

Enlargement

NATO

“Russian state-owned propaganda outlet RIA published the new programmatic article with the title ”What Russia must do with Ukraine“. The article reveals a detailed plan for a genocide, starting from full elimination of Ukrainian state.” Что Россия должна сделать с Украиной

“ A careful evaluation of recent history illustrates that the claim that US and NATO expansion threatens Moscow’s existence is an exaggeration. That Russia would inflate fears of NATO to pursue its global aspirations is understandable. What is less comprehensible is the degree to which influential Western thinkers, particularly on the anti-imperial US left, have promoted this narrative. This paper will examine the work of prominent US anti-imperial leftists who view the Russo-Ukrainian war through a US-centric lens, a conceptual framework that distorts the historical record. It will first document how these commentators’ explanatory models give outsized attention to US maneuvers, while neglecting regional fault lines, Russian irredentism and historical nuance. Consequently, many US anti-imperial leftists conclude that the US/NATO alliance is to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. This paper will explore Russia-NATO interactions and Moscow’s imperial discourse to demonstrate that the blame NATO stance obfuscates the historical record.

— Carl Mirra, “Not One Inch, Unless It Is from Lisbon to Vladivostok” (pdf)

“ This leads us to the second point: NATO did not expand into “Eastern Europe.” Czechia, Poland, and Hungary in 1999 and the Baltic countries among others in 2004 actively sought membership in the alliance. This is not just semantics. For the historical reasons mentioned above, the West has been a desired political direction associated with prosperity, democracy, and freedom—despite the limitations of Western liberal capitalist democracies and the implementation of that model in Eastern Europe. Being at the receiving end of Russian imperialism, many Eastern Europeans looked forward to membership in NATO as a means of securing their sovereignty. NATO, in other words, would not have “expanded” into Eastern Europe if the Eastern European nations had not wanted it and actively pursued it.

As 2020 Pew Research Center data show, Eastern European members generally see NATO favorably. Fifty-three percent of Czechs have a positive opinion about NATO, as do 77 percent of Lithuanians. NATO’s most enthusiastic supporters are Poles, with 88 percent supporting the alliance. Fifty-three percent of Ukrainians view NATO favorably, compared to 23 who view it negatively. …

In the westsplaining framework, the concerns of Russia are recognized but those of Eastern Europe are not. This, again, mirrors the Russian line that “Ukraine’s current regime lacks any sovereignty,” which of course also operates within a framework inherited from the bipolar world of the Cold War. Eastern Europe is something that can be explained but isn’t worth engaging with.

— Jan Smoleński and Jan Dutkiewicz, “The American Pundits Who Can’t Resist ‘Westsplaining ’Ukraine”, March 4, 2022

“ Does the right to sovereignty also mean for Georgia and Ukraine, for example, that Russia would have nothing against their accession to the EU and NATO?

Sergey Lavrov: That is their choice. We respect the right of every state - including our neighbors - to choose its own partners, to decide for itself which organization to join. We assume that they will consider for themselves how they develop their politics and economy and which partners and allies they rely on.

— “Russland öffnet Ukraine den Weg in die Nato”, 2. Januar 2005

“ I am absolutely convinced that Ukraine will not shy away from the processes of expanding interaction with NATO and the Western allies as a whole. Ukraine has its own relations with NATO; there is the Ukraine-NATO Council. At the end of the day the decision is to be taken by NATO and Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners.

— Vladimir Putin, “Press Statement and Answers to Questions at a Joint News Conference with Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma”, May 17, 2002

• Putin says Russia has ‘no problems’ with Finland, Sweden in NATO, May 16, 2002

• Mikhail Gorbachev: I am against all walls

• Did NATO Promise Not to Enlarge? Gorbachev Says “No” [1] [2] [3] [4]

• ‘There was no promise not to enlarge NATO’

• ‘Not one inch’: unpicking Putin’s deadly obsession with the details of history (Archiv)

• Why would anyone even care about a verbal promise to a dead leader of a non-existent state?

• Many years ago, the U.S. made a verbal promise to the leader of a state that doesn’t exist anymore. Now one of the former parts of that state (Russia), with the support of another (Belarus), has invaded a third (Ukraine).

• Lionel Page, “It is regrettable that many Western commentators repeated Putin’s narrative that the problem came from an aggressive NATO expansion aimed at encircling Russia. Time for a reset of narratives. Here are some simple insights, informed by our work on the game theory of alliances. 🧵”, February 25, 2022 (thread) (pdf)

• Pekka Kallioniemi, “In today’s #vatnik soup and the newest edition of “You pronounced this nonsense, not me”, I’ll talk about the NATO expansion and how - according to Russia - NATO and the West are actually at fault for the war in Ukraine.”, March 14, 2022 (thread) (pdf)

• A look at the debate over NATO expansion eastward that’s at the heart of conflict now

• From Accepting NATO Aspirations to ‘Denazifying’: 20+ Years of Putin’s Changing Views on Ukraine

• Putin backs off hardline on Sweden, Finland NATO bids
  • https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1631746434000191517

• Were these promises ever written down in a treaty? No, largely because Bush felt Baker and Kohl had gone too far, or in Baker’s words he had “got a little forward on his skis”.

• Yeltsin ’respects’ Polish position on NATO

• Tymofiy Mylovanov, “Jeffrey Sachs new article: The War in Ukraine Was Provoked. He claims that the war was provoked by NATO expansion and started in 2022 with the US-sponsored violent coup. Again all his arguments are false, but they should be taken seriously and must be refuted.” (thread)
  • debunked: “The War in Ukraine Was Provoked—and Why That Matters to Achieve Peace”

• Just an ever-necessary reminder, the only reason russia opposes "NATO expansion" is because it prevents them from doing this: and this:

• Societies with history of Russian aggression and occupation seek the security of NATO membership to ensure that Russia won’t be able to occupy them again. When Moscow decries “NATO expansion” it is protesting the loss of ability to violate its former colonial subjects. When an abuser who has long enjoyed impunity discovers that his victim has obtained or is attempting to obtain a restraining order, he might conclude that his “interests” have been violated and become outraged. Yet, this outrage is not a valid reason to let him have his way. The 🇷🇺 narrative of “NATO expansion” as reason for the invasion of 🇺🇦 is textbook abuser logic. Why anyone would side with the abuser is fascinating. I see two possible reasons: (a) one is paid to do it or (b) one is genuinely ignorant of 🇷🇺 history as a ruthless colonial empire.

• M. E. Sarotte, Not One Inch: America, Russia, and the Making of Post-Cold War Stalemate

• https://warontherocks.com/2019/11/promises-made-promises-broken-what-yeltsin-was-told-about-nato-in-1993-and-why-it-matters-2/

• Exposing the myth of Western betrayal of Russia over NATO’s eastern enlargement

• Die Geschichte der NATO-Osterweiterung

Poland

• Poland’s Road to NATO from the Perspective of Poland’s Ambassador to Washington

• POLAND, THE ISSUE OF NATO EXPANSION AND THE POLISH AMERICAN CONGRESS

• Yeltsin ’Understands’ Polish Bid for a Role in NATO

Baltics

• https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1567068652729516032
• “Let’s talk about why the Baltic nations are not ‘former Soviet states’.” (thread) (pdf)
• https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/04/tim-kaine-and-cory-gardner-why-we-stand-nato/586456/

“I have the honor to offer my best wishes to the signatories of the North Atlantic Pact, and to express my confidence that they, inspired by the ideals of democracy, of individual liberty, and the rule of law, will strive relentlessly for peace with justice, which excludes peace at any price. Therefore, I express the belief that countries which were forcibly deprived of self-government and independence will benefit by this noble endeavor.”

Ukraine

• To Protect Europe, Let Ukraine Join NATO—Right Now

russia

• https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/04/ex-nato-head-says-putin-wanted-to-join-alliance-early-on-in-his-rule

Treaties with russia

“ The member States of NATO reiterate that they have no intention, no plan and no reason to deploy nuclear weapons on the territory of new members, nor any need to change any aspect of NATO’s nuclear posture or nuclear policy - and do not foresee any future need to do so.

— Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation, signed in Paris, France, May 27, 1997

• Lavrov Backs NATO Using Ulyanovsk Base, March 14, 2012

Popular support - votes and polls

• NATO Seen Favorably Across Member States

• NATO Annual Tracking Research 2021

Membership votes

• Wikipedia: Category:NATO membership referendums

• Wikipedia: Member states of NATO#List of member countries

1949: "The Senate [...] approved the treaty on July 21 by a vote of 82 to 13"

• Hungary: Referendum Supports NATO Enlargement

• SPAIN VOTES TO REMAIN IN NATO IN DRAMATIC VICTORY FOR GONZALEZ

If you could vote for or against your country’s membership in NATO, how would you vote?

• NATO Seen Favorably Across Member States
• If you could vote for or against your country’s membership in NATO, how would you vote?
• NATO pre-Summit polling results show historically high level of support for NATO, 22 June 2022
• Poll: Europeans from NATO countries embrace US defense

• Anyone using this image as appology for russ aggression against ukraine is either troll or complete id**t. There are no other reasons for being that dumb.

Political support

Here is a list of the GOP lawmakers who voted “no”[5]

https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/2022364

Andy Biggs, Arizona Dan Bishop, North Carolina Lauren Boebert, Colorado Madison Cawthorn, North Carolina Ben Cline, Virginia Michael Cloud, Texas Warren Davidson, Ohio Matt Gaetz, Florida Bob Good, Virginia Marjorie Taylor Greene, Georgia Morgan Griffith, Virginia, Thomas Massie, Kentucky Tom McClintock, California Mary Miller, Illinois Ralph Norman, South Carolina, Matt Rosendale, Montana Chip Roy, Texas Jefferson Van Drew, New Jersey

USA

• Support for US Commitment to NATO at 48-Year High, September 14, 2022

UK

• Support for NATO membership has become firmer in Britain, Spain and Poland since March

Finland

• Finnish Support for NATO Membership Jumps to 76% in Latest Poll, May 9, 2022
• Poll: Citizens’ willingness to defend Finland, support for Nato hit all time high
• Finnish Support For NATO Membership Rises To 78 Percent, Poll Shows, November 23, 2022
• Yle poll: Support for Nato membership soars to 76%
• Most Finns, Swedes Approve of NATO’s Leadership

Ukraine

“Anyone who says that NATO provoked russia to attack Ukraine is either stupid, brainwashed or simply doesn’t know the history. To the contrary, a simple cause-and-effect analysis shows that it was russia who pushed Ukraine towards NATO.”

• Record 83% of Ukrainians want NATO membership -poll, October 4, 2022

• Putin’s plan to stop Ukraine turning to the west has failed – our survey shows support for Nato is at an all-time high January 4, 2023

• https://twitter.com/rshereme/status/1678659166808702976

russian troops

Finnish border

• Russia withdraws its troops from Finnish border after Finland joins NATO, July 5, 2022

• Finnish military intelligence: The Russian troops at the Finnish border are now less than 25% of what they were before Russias invasion of Ukraine in Feb -24.
  • Försvarets underrättelsetjänst: Tunga ryska förluster i Ukraina minskar hotet mot Finland, January 19, 2023

Norwegian border

• https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1703136363493658742

Kaliningrad

• https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1728719618317910451
  • https://twitter.com/MariaSeyrig/status/1728938510928015635

russian invasion of Ukraine

• Steven Pifer, “One. More. Time. It’s not about NATO”

• russian invasion of Ukraine/Reasons

Funding

• Funding NATO: US contribution is around $560 million per year

• FACT CHECK: Trump's Claims On NATO Spending

• Trump says NATO countries' burden-sharing improving, wants more

Interventions

• NATO/With Or Without NATO - A Tale of Four Wars
• NATO/With Or Without NATO - a Tale of Four Wars

More

• Putin’s Biggest Lie: Blaming NATO for His War

• Stanislav Shipitsyn/Why NATO does not threaten Russia and its citizens

• https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1567068576527355904

• https://news.usni.org/2022/02/02/u-s-offered-russians-aegis-ashore-inspections-to-ease-ukraine-tensions-more-american-troops-headed-to-europe [6]

• https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_111767.htm

• https://english.elpais.com/usa/2022-02-02/us-offers-disarmament-measures-to-russia-in-exchange-for-a-deescalation-of-military-threat-in-ukraine.html

• An excellent summary. NATO is a defensive alliance and countries join because they want to have the safety of collective defense from a nearby common aggressor. NATO would not need to exist if Russia wasn’t aggressive.

• Exclusive: As war began, Putin rejected a Ukraine peace deal recommended by aide: “Vladimir Putin’s chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia’s demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership”

• Let's talk about NATO Expansion

• Putin’s NATO Narrative Is Bullshit

• Clinton-Yeltsin, search for NATO

• https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/sites/default/files/documents/4390818/Document-04-Retranslation-of-Yeltsin-letter-on.pdf

• https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/115204.htm

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AtYCWPJeF8

• Ukraine: the history behind Russia’s claim that Nato promised not to expand to the east