Russian invasion of Ukraine/Reasons

“наступною буде Україна” —“Ukraine will be next”, 2008 [3]

25 июня 2014 в Луганск вошла колонна российской техники. На тот момент городские онлайн камеры еще работали и это можно было спокойно наблюдать. Удивительно, но несмотря на очевидное некоторые будут 8 лет рассказывать “при чем тут россия, у вас гражданская война etc” On June 25, 2014, a convoy of Russian equipment entered Luhansk. At that time, city online cameras were still working and it could be easily observed. Surprisingly, despite the obvious, some will tell for 8 years “what does Russia have to do with it, you have a civil war, etc”

“ Russia’s president invaded Ukraine not because he felt threatened by NATO expansion or by Western “provocations.” He ordered his “special military operation” because he believes that it is Russia’s divine right to rule Ukraine, to wipe out the country’s national identity, and to integrate its people into a Greater Russia.

— Fiona Hill and Angela Stent, The World Putin Wants

“ The root cause of the war is Russia’s refusal to accept the dissolution of the Soviet Union and its willingness to take its former empire back by force. That problem will be fully solved only when Moscow accepts that its empire is gone for good and readjusts to life as a normal country rather than an international predator.

— Gideon Rose, “Ukraine’s Winnable War Why the West Should Help Kyiv Retake All Its Territory” (archive)

Since 2003, russia planned the russian invasion of Ukraine [10]. Since 2006, russia infiltrated/trained “separatists” in Eastern Ukraine. Since 2011, it started training its troops for invasion using German provided training center.

The first Russian invasion happened in 2014 (Russian invasion of Ukraine/2014), second in 2022, with parts of Ukraine occupied by russian troops in-between:

“ I was at the MH17 crash site the next day after it happened. I asked at least 7 unmarked soldiers guarding the site where are they from? Answer was Kazan,Peter,Moscow, Rostov... all from Russia.

— Ante Portas

• The criminal investigation by the Joint Investigation Team (JIT)

“ Among other things, the Court found that areas in eastern Ukraine in separatist hands were, from 11 May 2014 and up to at least 26 January 2022, under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation.

— European Court of Human Rights, “Grand Chamber decision Ukraine and the Netherlands v. Russia - Flight MH17 and eastern-Ukraine-conflict case partially admissible, will proceed to judgment”, January 25, 2023. See: russian invasion of Ukraine#2014. Also confirmed by a russian court [11], see: ru:Вторжение России на Украину#2014.

• IMR Releases The Interpreter Report ‘An Invasion by Any Other Name: The Kremlin’s Dirty War in Ukraine’

“ Video for all the useful idiots who claim “civil war” in Ukraine in 2014. The video shows Russian military equipment including tanks entering the city of #Lugansk in 2014. Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine began in 2014.

— Alexandre

Below some of the reasons, goals, objectives and enabling factors of the russian invasion of Ukraine.

Prelude: Background and enabling factors

[4] John McCain, 2015

If Putin was “provoked”, it’s by the West’s meakness (See also: Kremlinism/Propaganda/Bots)

“ if I wanted to, I could take Kiev in two weeks.

— Vladimir Putin, 2014 [12]

1994: Disarmament

“ The Clinton administration ignored flashing warning signs as it pushed Ukraine hard to accept unilateral disarmament—depriving Kyiv of a deterrent against Russia while providing nothing real to replace it.

— How Bill Clinton Sealed Ukraine’s Fate: The inside story of the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, when Kyiv returned its nuclear weapons to Russia in return for ‘assurances’ from Moscow and Washington.

• Wikipedia:Nunn–Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction#20th century outcome

• Destruction of planes: [13] [14]

• See: Russian invasion of Ukraine/US Aid to Ukraine

“Separatists”

“ Among other things, the Court found that areas in eastern Ukraine in separatist hands were, from 11 May 2014 and up to at least 26 January 2022, under the jurisdiction of the Russian Federation.

— European Court of Human Rights, “Grand Chamber decision Ukraine and the Netherlands v. Russia - Flight MH17 and eastern-Ukraine-conflict case partially admissible, will proceed to judgment”, January 25, 2023. See: russian invasion of Ukraine#2014. Also confirmed by a russian court [15], see: ru:Вторжение России на Украину#2014.

• Ukrainian hackers posted emails showing Russia’s involvement in the separatist movement that has waged war in Ukraine.

Early preparations (since 2003)

“ Illarionov was Putin’s chief economic advisor up until 2005. When he resigned, he left the country and became an outspoken critic.

He says Putin has been planning the months-long invasion for years.

“He’s had this idea, this goal for last two decades. Even when I was his advisor, I was able to watch to see myself his intentions,” Illarionov said.

Illarionov says Putin could never accept the fact that Ukraine was its own sovereign nation separate from Russia. He believes the invasion is step one in Putin’s grand plan of reunifying the whole former Soviet Union.

— ‘This should be stopped’: Ex-Putin advisor weighs in on Russia-Ukraine invasion

• Russian insider says Putin openly planned invasion of Ukraine since 2003

• Russia started training separatists to split Ukraine in 2006 already. Then Russia’s relations with NATO were still excellent. [16]

Coup attempts

• Pekka Kallioniemi, “As a little dessert for today’s rather heavy #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce a real coup that was supposed to be done by Yanukovych and his Party of Regions, with the help of Putin. This conspiracy was revealed by a former People’s Deputy of Ukraine, Oleg Anatolyevich Tsaryov.”, March 13, 2023 (thread) (pdf)

Dam construction (2003)

• In 2003 Russia started to build a dam to Ukrainian island Tuzla near Crimea. It was unannounced and illegal construction.

Warning signs

“ “Russia attempts to challenge the territorial integrity of Ukraine, particularly in Crimea, which is 59 percent ethnically Russian and is home to the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet, must be prevented,” the memo warned five years before Russian forces would seize Crimea and 13 years before they would invade the rest of the country. The memo added that “Russia will exploit Europe’s dependence on Russian energy” and use political means “to drive wedges between the United States and Europe.”

— George W. Bush, 2009 memo to his successor Barack Obama, From George to Barack: A Look at Secret Bush Memos to the Obama Team (Bush warned Obama about Russia’s plans for Crimea, NYT reports)

• ‘The plan was to do away with Chechnya and go to Crimea’ Dzhokhar Dudayev predicted war in Ukraine

• President Dzhokhar Dudayev about Russia-Ukraine war back in 1995

• The world did not listen to Dzhokhar Dudayev in the 1990s.

Operation: Novorossiya: The History Behind The Kremlin’s Neo Nazi Psy-op In Ukraine

• OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 1 OF 6: INTRODUCTION TO GRU (THE NAZI PROBLEM?)
• OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 2 OF 6: SEPARATION OF DIGNITY: THE RISE OF WAGNER
• OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 3 OF 6: THE GREY CARDINAL (AND THE NEW GRU)
• OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 4 OF 6: STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
• OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 5 OF 6: AZOV: THE RUSSIAN MIRROR
• OPERATION NOVOROSSIYA: PART 6 OF 6: AZOV: THE CURIOUS CASE OF THE BOATSMAN
• thread

Invading army preparation

Rheinmetall wins major order in Russia

“ “We had no hypersonic weapons back then, but now we do have them,” Putin replied to a Russian propagandist Pavel Zarubin who asked why Russia did not start the so-called special military operation in Ukraine earlier. “Now we have other modern systems, apart from the hypersonic weapons. But there was nothing like that in 2014,” Putin added.

— Lack of hypersonic weapons did not allow Russia to [ full-scale ] invade Ukraine in 2014 – Russia’s President

• Kamil Galeev, “Daily reminder that Putin’s army of invasion was trained on the Rheinmetall-built training centre Mulino. In 2014 they ‘left’ and construction was finished by ‘Гарнизон’ company, probably a proxy. 100% of its imports came from Germany, last Rheinmetall shipments coming in 2019”, July 13, 2022 (thread) (pdf)

• “WAR IN UKRAINE : How France delivered weapons to Russia until 2020”: “Between 2015 and 2020, France delivered state-of-the-art military equipment to Russia.This equipment has enabled Vladimir Putin to modernise 1,000 tanks, fighter planes and combat helicopters, and could be used in the Ukrainian conflict.”

Militarization of society

• “Putin militarizes society: ‘For the president, for the army, for Russia’”

• “The Long History of Russia and War”: “Russia has always been a militarized country”

Military parades (2019)

• Sergej Sumlenny, “OTD four years ago, in a small town of Sibay, Russia-occupied Bashkortostan, I saw these hundreds of perfectly drilled school kids marching in perfect groups, and said: “in top 5 years, many will return home in body bags, but before they will kill a lot of civilians”.”, April 30, 2023 (thread) (pdf)

• Military parade of kindergarten groups. This is an example of extreme #militarism of Russian state and society that was happening even before full scale invasion of #Ukraine. #Russia

russian invasion of Georgia, 2008

• Natia Seskuria, Russia Is Reenacting Its Georgia Playbook in Ukraine, February 22 (!), 2022 (archive)

Territorial expansion, imperialism, domination

“The President took part in a ceremony of raising the flags of the Russian Federation, the USSR and the Russian Empire on the coast of the Gulf of Finland.”, June 17, 2023 [5][6][7]

[8] Ah yes, the great legacy of: Kremlinism/WWII, GULag, Holodomor...

[9] Why deny the crimes of the Soviet Union, unless you want the Soviet Union?

вернём границы 1945 года! —Let’s bring back the borders of 1945!

“ The root cause of the war is Russia’s refusal to accept the dissolution of the Soviet Union and its willingness to take its former empire back by force. That problem will be fully solved only when Moscow accepts that its empire is gone for good and readjusts to life as a normal country rather than an international predator.

— Gideon Rose, “Ukraine’s Winnable War Why the West Should Help Kyiv Retake All Its Territory” (archive)

• ‘I Worked With Putin: Here’s What You Don’t Know About Him’
  • [17]

Reviving the Soviet Union

“ Above all, we should acknowledge that the collapse of the Soviet Union was a major geopolitical disaster of the century.

— Vladimir Putin, “Annual Address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation”, April 25, 2005

• Putin rues Soviet collapse as demise of ‘historical Russia’

• 

  Russian T-80BVM, eastern Ukraine

• 

  Video from the Russian MoD’s Zvezda allegedly showing Russian troops in Ukraine. Note the prominent Soviet flag on the BMP-2. [1]

• 

  A Russian BTR-80 with a Soviet flag.

• 

  Soviet Flag on a Russian BTR-82A in Kharkiv Oblast.

“ In essence, Ukraine’s ruling circles decided to justify their country’s independence through the denial of its past, however, except for border issues. They began to mythologize and rewrite history, edit out everything that united us, and refer to the period when Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union as an occupation.

— Vladimir Putin, “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, July 12, 2021

• Петр Акопов, Наступление России и нового мира
  • Russian news agency deletes victory editorial
  • The advance of Russia and The New World Order
  • “The article “The Advance of Russia and of a New World” by Petr Akopov was briefly published in several Russian state news sites on 26 February 2022, two days after Russian forces openly invaded Ukrainian-controlled territory, but was soon deleted. Its original publication on RIA News at precisely 8:00 a.m. suggests it may have been automatically published by mistake.”, Wikipedia: On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians
  • Petr Akopov, The new world order

• Video from the Russian MoD’s Zvezda allegedly showing Russian troops in Ukraine. Note the prominent Soviet flag on the BMP-2. (thread) (pdf)

• At a ceremony today presided over by Gazprom Neft in St. Petersburg, near the Lakhta Center, Putin watched from a yacht in the Gulf of Finland as they raised the Russian tricolor... the Russian imperial flag, and ... the Soviet flag.
  • The President took part in a ceremony of raising the flags of the Russian Federation, the USSR and the Russian Empire on the coast of the Gulf of Finland.

• “Russian memorials to victims of Stalin vanish”: “Memorials to victims of Stalinist repression in Russia are disappearing or being vandalised amid increasing attempts to rehabilitate the Soviet dictator.”

• 110 monuments to Stalin in russia, 97 of them built under Putin

• GrandTurion, “Russia = Soviet Union 🧵” (thread) (pdf)

Expanding the russian empire

Границы России нигде не заканчивается - Russia’s borders end nowhere

“ Peter the Great ... was returning and reinforcing, that is what he was doing.

Clearly, it fell to our lot to return and reinforce as well. And if we operate on the premise that these basic values constitute the basis of our existence, we will certainly succeed in achieving our goals.

— Vladimir Putin, “Meeting with young entrepreneurs, engineers and scientists”, June 9, 2022

• “Putin’s pet propagandists readily embraced his speech about taking back historical territories. They jumped on the bandwagon with gusto, comparing their empire to the Golden Horde and North Korea.”

• Putin compares himself to Peter the Great in quest to take back Russian lands

• Europe’s last empire: Putin’s Ukraine war exposes Russia’s imperial identity

• “Of course we deny Ukraine the right to sovereignty”, says Russian propagandist Mardan, boasting about Russia’s “imperial consciousness”

• “It doesn’t matter what you call it …denazification or demilitarisation. Call it whatever you want. Everyone knows what it really means …the restoration of the russian empire.”

• https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1707737594455367750

• The head of the Russian occupation administration of Zaporizhia, Yevgeny Balitsky, said that Russia’s goal is to occupy not only Ukraine, but also the Baltic countries, Poland and Finland. Because these states are “the historical lands of Russia”.

Cultural domination

• Kamil Galeev, “War of memes: why Z-war won’t end with peace Some Western analysts unfamiliar with Eastern European cultural context perceive Z-war as an accident. They presume that Russian invasion results from some sort of “misunderstanding” or mistake which can be resolved via negotiations🧵”, April 18, 2022 (thread) (pdf)

Preventing democratic concurrent models

“ At a basic level, Russia likely fears that an economically prosperous, democratic Ukraine might offer the Russian population the prospect of an alternative political and economic system other than an authoritarian-ruled kleptocracy. This might be partly why Russian President Vladimir Putin tends to characterize the war in Ukraine as existential in nature, which in turn enables the Kremlin to further mobilize the population against what it claims are the military and cultural threats of the eastwardly expanding NATO and EU.

After failing to subjugate the country completely, this then appears to be Russia’s principal political objective in Ukraine: keeping it from becoming an example of what an alternative political and economic path might bring the Russian people.

— What is Russia’s Strategy in Ukraine?

• How Putin’s fear of democracy convinced him to invade Ukraine

• Yet again, State Duma member said the quiet part out loud on Russian state TV: Adalbi Shkhagoshev stated that Russia rejects the notion of a rule-based world order and has been trying “to squeeze out the democratization” promoted by the United States out of Syria and now Ukraine.

“ Here’s why I believe Ukraine was, and remains, such a threat to Vladimir #Putin: In 1989, Putin was a KGB officer in Dresden when the Berlin Wall fell and communism collapsed. How did that collapse happen? East Germans who were (illegally) watching West German TV saw that their neighbors to the West had a life, and lifestyle, far superior to the one in East Germany. More freedom. More income. More opportunities. Better quality of life. So, East Germans voted with their feet and fled. Putin soon experienced the collapse of East German firsthand.

Today, Putin’s worst nightmare is a #Ukraine that holds free and fair elections, and has a free media, human rights, freedom of speech and religion. Ukraine, Russia’s neighbor, already has a higher standard of living than Russia. Ukraine has not yet reached its potential, but unlike #Russia, they’ve already made some significant strides in that direction. (Compare the respective trajectories of North and South Korea since 1970 if you want to see a historical precedent.)

A successful #Ukraine is simply a ticking time bomb for an autocratic revanchist Tsar in the Kremlin, plain and simple. So yes, you could say that Ukraine was an existential threat to Putin’s kleptocratic regime. But not for the absurd reasons the #Kremlin has claimed.

— Fred Hoffman, D.Sc. [18]

Forced russification

• https://twitter.com/adnashmyash/status/1699151571773252048

Genocide

Sounding very vexed with the current situation of the war that Russia started, propagandist Skabeeva states “the Ukrainian question has to be solved once & for all” adding she thinks they should “destroy every living thing in the Kharkiv region as a punishment and a deterrent”. (Olga Skabeyeva)

«Ты вообще понимаешь, что мы фашисты?» —“You Do Realize We’re the Fascists?”

“Russian state-owned propaganda outlet RIA published the new programmatic article with the title ”What Russia must do with Ukraine“. The article reveals a detailed plan for a genocide, starting from full elimination of Ukrainian state.” Что Россия должна сделать с Украиной

“ Владимир Путин взял на себя —без капли преувеличения —историческую ответственность, решив не оставлять решение украинского вопроса будущим поколениям.

Vladimir Putin has assumed, without a drop of exaggeration, a historic responsibility by deciding not to leave the solution of the Ukrainian question to future generations.

— Петр Акопов, Наступление России и нового мира [ Petr Akopov, The new world order ], February 26, 2022

“ я думаю убивать, убивать и убивать. Больше разговоров никаких не должно быть. Как профессор я так считаю.

We must kill, kill and kill Ukrainians. No need to talk to them. This is my opinion as a professor.

— Aleksandr Dugin

“ Украину надо очистить от идиотов. Геноцид кретинов напрашивается сам собой. Кретинов злобных, закрытых для голоса Логоса, смертельно опасных и… при всем этом неимоверно глупых. Я не верю, что это украинцы. Украинцы прекрасный славянский народ. Это какая-то появившаяся из канализационных люков раса ублюдков.

Ukraine must be cleaned of idiots. The genocide of these cretins suggests itself. Evil cretins, closed to the voice of the Logos, mortally dangerous and... for all that incredibly stupid. I don’t believe they are Ukrainians. Ukrainians are a wonderful Slavic people. This is some kind of bastard race that emerged from the sewer manholes.

— Aleksandr Dugin, August 24, 2014

Pavel Gubarev

• Here is 7 minutes of Russian State TV pondering if the “genetic impurity” of Ukrainian genetics has infected Russia, before reading an article that proposes ethnically cleansing the territory currently controlled by Russia, and calling to conquer more of Ukraine.

• See also: Russian invasion of Ukraine/Genocide, Kremlinism/Genocide

Destroying Ukraine as a nation, genocide of Ukrainians

• “There is no Ukraine”: Fact-Checking the Kremlin’s Version of Ukrainian History

• Françoise Thom, “Russian Ideologues Aim to Liquidate the Ukrainian Nation”, April 8, 2022

• “Russian state-owned propaganda outlet RIA published the new programmatic article with the title ‘What Russia must do with Ukraine’. The article reveals a detailed plan for a genocide, starting from full elimination of Ukrainian state.”
  • Что Россия должна сделать с Украиной [19]
  • What should Russia do with Ukraine?
  • What Russia should do with Ukraine?
  • What Russia wants from Ukraine? Screenshots from Russian media, RIA Novosti.
• Tim Snyder , Russia’s Genocide Handbook: The evidence of atrocity and of intent mounts

• Pavel Gubarev, Russia’s “DPR” figure in Donetsk, states their intent towards Ukrainians: “We aren’t coming to kill you, but to convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”

• More genocidal talk on Russian state TV: pundit agrees that Putin’s goal is to erase the very idea of being a Ukrainian. He finds even the name, “Ukrainians,” to be an insult and sees no reason for that entire nation or nationality to exist outside of “Russian” identity.

• Sergej Sumlenny, “Russia is insane about renaming streets of the occupied territories. They always massively rename everything, including the cities and towns after occupation. Here is an interesting example of their logic: re-naming list for Ukrainian Melitopol, occupied by the Russians”, February 1st, 2023, (thread) (pdf)

• “Anna Dolgareva, Russian propagandist, says: “denazifying means they all need to be killed, all adult population of Ukraine who resist - physically destroyed. And their children raised in Russian spirit.””

• “Of course we deny Ukraine the right to sovereignty”, says Russian propagandist Mardan, boasting about Russia’s “imperial consciousness”

• Біографія Тандиру, “Thread about genocide in Ukraine Genocide cannot be strong, weak or “halfway”. It’s not a literary term; it has specific characteristics. It either exists or it doesn’t. It’s happening in Ukraine. The word “genocide” shouldn’t be used to reinforce smth.” (thread) (pdf)

• Solovyev’s big-eared lapdog confirms to a vast Russian audience, and to us, that the goal of the invasion is to destroy Ukraine as a state.

• Kremlin propagandist explains how good it feels to see images of dead Ukrainian families and their destroyed homes in Dnipro and that completely destroyed Mariupol (87,000 dead) should be the model for Kharkiv and other Ukrainian cities. (Mariupol)

• Alexey Kovalev, Russia’s Ukraine Propaganda Has Turned Fully Genocidal

• Calculated evil: How Putin’s forces use war crimes and torture to erase Ukrainian identity

• See also: russian invasion of Ukraine/Torture, Kremlinism/Torture, russian invasion of Ukraine/War crimes, Kremlinism/War Crimes...

• Meanwhile in Russia: Sergey Mardan, who hosts a show on channel Solovyov Live, and military correspondent Dmitry Steshin, whom Mardan described as the best example of Russian military journalism, discussed Russia’s genocidal agenda towards Ukrainians.

• No more camouflage, nothing coy here: Just Russian propagandists calling for wiping out Ukraine and the mass murder of Ukrainians:

• [20][21][22]
  • Pekka Kallioniemi, “In today’s #vatniksoup, I’ll introduce a Russian political scientist and head of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Sergey Karaganov. He’s best-known for his imperialistic policies since the early 1990’s, and for calling the destruction of the West and of Ukraine.”, September 20, 2022 (thread) (pdf)

• In 2022, the Rusich proposed to exterminate:- All male population of Ukraine older than 5 - All female population of Ukraine older than 10 Surviving girls were to be distributed to Russian soldiers 2-3 girls per capita. Surviving boys - trained for the military service

Occupation and concentration camps

• Russia plans to build 25 prisons and three forced labor camps in occupied areas of Ukraine

• Wikipedia: Russian filtration camps

• “Mariupol Mayor, Vadym Boychenko, says thousands of residents have been forcibly deported to distant regions of Russia. Residents of the Left Bank district were taken to “filtration camps” and many were later deported. He said it looks like the 1940s all over again.”

• “’You can’t imagine the conditions’ - Accounts emerge of Russian detention camps”

• “There are 66 camps in russia, which hold 95,000 Mariupol residents. It’s hard to imagine what these people are going through there”

• “Депортуй ближнього свого: як Російська православна церква разом із силовиками примусово переселяють українців до Росії”
  • “The Russian Orthodox Church is involved in the deportation of Ukrainians to Russia —they are resettled in churches and monasteries” (see: Russian Orthodox Church)

• https://twitter.com/OPolianichev/status/1705985056114639028

• “good old GULag”

• See: Russian invasion of Ukraine/Occupation

Castrations

• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a genocidal war. This is just another example of how
  • “Hundreds” of prisoners of war had been returned, alive, but castrated.
  • “She thought she was unshockable, then two castrated Ukrainian soldiers arrived” (archive) “The Russians told them, ‘We are doing this so you can’t have kids.’ To me this is genocide.”” “Doctors at the maternity hospital in Poltava said they had been consulted about women from occupied areas who had been raped by Russians then had their vaginas injected with window sealant so they can never have children.”

• See also: russian invasion of Ukraine/POWs, russian invasion of Ukraine/Torture, russian invasion of Ukraine/War crimes, Kremlinism/Torture, Kremlinism/War Crimes...

Genocide of minorities from occupied Ukraine

“ Crimean Tatars enjoyed an autonomy within Ukraine. But since Russia annexed Crimea the deportation of Tatars resumed.

— Mikhail Svetov, “An appeal to western libertarians about the war in Ukraine”, August 19, 2014

• russia is organizing another genocide of crimean tatars: 80% of men forcefully conscripted from russian occupied Crimea are crimean tatars (while they only constitute 20% of population). This is deliberate extermination.

• See: Crimea/Crimean Tatars

Genocide of minorities from russia

“ Putin cannot announce a general mobilization, since that would be an admission that he is losing the war. It would too overtly break the social contract according to which the poor, the Asians, and forcibly mobilized Ukrainians do the dying.

— Timothy Snyder

• One of the reasons for why russia doesn’t want to let minorities have their independence is the projected decline of ethnic russians and increase of minorities.

• Russia Is Using Ethnic Minorities As Cannon Fodder In Ukraine

• Russian casualties in Ukraine. Mediazona count, updated

• 2 Years Into Ukraine War, Russia’s Ethnic Minorities Disproportionately Killed in Battle

• ‘We’re minor losses’: Russia’s mobilisation targets ethnic minorities: Indigenous men from Dagestan to Yakutia disproportionately conscripted as activists accuse Kremlin of ‘genocide’

Deportations

• “Putin signs decree greenlighting deportation of Ukrainians who refuse to renounce their citizenship from Russian-occupied territories”, April 27, 2023

Demographic decline / kidnapping children

• Head of RT Margarita Simonyan predicted that Russia’s demographic crisis will be resolved in the future, when streams of Americans will flood to Russia—even if they have to work fixing toilets. Russia will choose only the best and send the rest back home.

• Deportation of children constitutes genocide

“ Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).

— Situation in Ukraine: ICC judges issue arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova

• Pekka Kallioniemi, “In this thread I’ll be discussing 🇷🇺 genocide in Ukraine. I’ll focus on the child abductions & will be providing evidence that 🇷🇺 has planned this for a long time and that their intent has been announced in the state-owned media at least since the beginning of April, 2022.”, November 7, 2022 (thread) (pdf) (website)

• Russia’s population crisis is making Putin more dangerous (archive)

• See: Russian invasion of Ukraine/Deportation of children

Secondary reasons

Resource grab

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  [2]

• If you believed Putin’s lie that Russia wasn’t planning to occupy any of the Ukrainian territories, listen to gov’t official on state TV admit the opposite. Discussing Ukraine’s vast mineral & energy resources Russia wants to pocket, state TV host says she is overcome with pride.

• In the Ukraine war, a battle for the nation’s mineral and energy wealth (archive)

• gas reserves

• Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner group, is now saying that all of the publicly stated reasons for the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine are false. In fact, after plundering the Donbas for eight years, the Russian elite got greedy and wanted more

• I’ll remind everyone again why Russia invaded & why Elon Musk changed his stance after his encrypted call with Putin. If you think its about NATO, you are either a grifter or brainwashed.

• Rare Earth Elements

Gas

• In January 2013, Ukraine signed a production-sharing agreement with Royal Dutch Shell for shale gas exploration and development in the Yuzivska field in eastern Ukraine.

Neon

• Exclusive: Russia’s attack on Ukraine halts half of world’s neon output for chips

Lithium

• Ukrainian lithium, another cause of the Russian invasion? “The discovery of reserves of more than 500,000 tonnes of lithium, one of the key metals in the energy transition, could have amplified Putin’s interests in Ukrainian territory”

• Huge Lithium Deposits Found In Ukraine Just Before Invasion

• See also Elon Musk

Domestic popularity boost

• Putin’s approval rating soars since he sent troops into Ukraine, state pollster reports

• Putin’s approval rating ends 2022 at 81%, boosted by support for the war in Ukraine

Fighting the West

• See: Dmitry Medvedev (playing bad cop, so that Putin can be good cop)

• See: Kremlinism/Threats against the USA

• Russian General Admits Ukraine Just a ’Stepping Stone’ to Invade Europe

False reasons (excuses, pretexts, artificial reasons)

Some of these reasons are relevant, but not as primary reasons. Ukraine potentially joining NATO, and Euromaidan, impeded russian plans of controlling Ukraine. But they were not reasons for the initial goal of controlling Ukraine and putting an end to its independence and democratization —one way or another. If the Kremlin had no such plans to begin with, none of this would have been relevant. Note also the direct russian involvement behind some of those “reasons” (e.g. the consequences of the 2014 russian invasion/russian-led separatism, russian nationalists/extremists, etc.).

• Debunking tankies on Ukraine (Part I)

• Debunking tankies on Ukraine (Part II)

• Pekka Kallioniemi, “In today’s #vatnik soup I’ll discuss Russia’s disinformation and propaganda campaigning in more detail, and go through four of the main ”big“ themes around which most of their propaganda is based on.” (thread) (pdf)

• Right so, let’s talk debunking russian nonsense. This thread will be long but I hope you stick with it. I will go through propaganda claims and debunk them and explain how best to do so. In following threads I’ll explain how better to bonk and argue. Have to walk before you run. (thread) (pdf)

• Why Do We Call the War in Ukraine Unprovoked? - Debunking Russian Claims (video)

• Michael Karadjis, “Ukraine myths used to justify Putin’s terror”

• The Dumbest Arguments About Russia’s War on Ukraine

• Randy Mott, “This is a list of things that many Republicans believe on Ukraine that are totally wrong. But some are so convinced of their opinion that they refuse to listen to any facts at all. Please get smarter”, July 18, 2023 (thread) (pdf)

NATO

“Russian state-owned propaganda outlet RIA published the new programmatic article with the title ”What Russia must do with Ukraine“. The article reveals a detailed plan for a genocide, starting from full elimination of Ukrainian state.” Что Россия должна сделать с Украиной

“Russland öffnet Ukraine den Weg in die Nato”, January 2, 2005

“Anyone who says that NATO provoked russia to attack Ukraine is either stupid, brainwashed or simply doesn’t know the history. To the contrary, a simple cause-and-effect analysis shows that it was russia who pushed Ukraine towards NATO.”

“ I am absolutely convinced that Ukraine will not shy away from the processes of expanding interaction with NATO and the Western allies as a whole. Ukraine has its own relations with NATO; there is the Ukraine-NATO Council. At the end of the day the decision is to be taken by NATO and Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners.

— Vladimir Putin, “Press Statement and Answers to Questions at a Joint News Conference with Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma”, May 17, 2002

• Putin says Russia has ‘no problems’ with Finland, Sweden in NATO, May 16, 2002

• From Accepting NATO Aspirations to ‘Denazifying’: 20+ Years of Putin’s Changing Views on Ukraine

• russia has always had borders with NATO (Norway, Alaska)

• Note also: that NATO is not a threat to russia, no matter how many borders it has with russia, should be obvious by now, as NATO is not invading russia despite the ongoing russian invasion of Ukraine [23], which would both provide a reason for invading russia and has shown russia’s weakness. NATO is a “threat” to russia only in the sense of preventing russia from invading its neighbors —not a threat to nuclear-armed russia’s internationally recognized territory itself.

• “NATO poses a threat to Russian imperialism not Russian security”

• Carl Mirra, “Not One Inch, Unless It Is from Lisbon to Vladivostok” (pdf)

• Steven Pifer, “One. More. Time. It’s not about NATO”

• Myths & Pretexts: NATO and Origins of the Ukraine Crisis

• On “NATO expansion”, see: NATO.

Denazification

Chief Rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Reuven Azman shares his photo with Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny

Alice Zhuravel, “I’ve spent the last eleven months searching for nazis in #Lviv. Twenty-eight years in #Ukraine. Can someone, who has never been to Ukraine and only reads “independent” media, help me to find them here?”

Ukraine/Antisemitism

• Even Russians themselves can’t find Nazis and fascists in Ukraine.

• Today I interviewed Avraham Wolff, the Chief rabbi of Odesa. When I told him that some foreigners still think that Ukraine is infested with Nazis, he was shocked. He said that, before the war, he thought this propaganda was “a joke” but now the joke “isn’t funny.”

• The Facts on ‘De-Nazifying’ Ukraine

• «Девочка спрашивала танкиста: «Вы и правда верите, что освобождаете нас от фашистов?» Исповеди свидетелей российской/советской оккупации —“A local girl asked: ’Do you really believe you’re liberating us from the Nazis?’” Confessions of Russian and Soviet Occupation Witnesses

• «Ты вообще понимаешь, что мы фашисты?» —“You Do Realize We’re the Fascists?”

• Получи, фашист, гумпомощь. Как немецкие «благотворители» через неонацистов снабжают российскую армию —Killer aid. How German “charities” supply the Russian army through neo-Nazis

• Где нацификация? Как неонацисты при поддержке губернатора Беглова учат российских детей убивать —What denazification? How Governor Beglov helps Neo-Nazis teach Russian children to kill

• See also: Kremlinism/Terrorism/Wagner, Kremlinism/Nazism, Kremlinism/Fascism, Ukraine/Antisemitism, Ukraine/Racism and Azov

Desatanization

• See: Desatanization. This one didn’t quite catch on...

Ukraine/Biolabs

• Randy Mott, “As NATO ramps up UKR army heavy weapons and Russian losses grow in UKR, the Russian social media propaganda claim on #Bioweapons has re-emerged. This thread dismantles the claim in detail w/ direct links to facts. ZERO evidence has been produced since the claim ”, February 10, 2023 (thread) (pdf)

• See: Ukraine/Biolabs

Euromaidan

Euromaidan “coup”

• Warrant for an Invasion: The Myth of the “American Coups” in Ukraine. 1. The Orange Revolution of 2004

• Warrant for an Invasion: The Myth of the “American Coups” in Ukraine. 2. What Happened in 2014

• Alan Hayman, “The Coup In Ukraine Is Actually A Complete Lie” [24]

• See: Euromaidan

Donbas

Donbas “liberation”

“ to claim that the setting up of ‘independent’ republics in 2014 in Donetsk and Luhansk, and their annexation by Russia in 2022 following fake ‘referenda’ under brutal military occupation, was “the right to self-determination of the ethnic Russian population of Donbas,” is a statement of extraordinary ignorance.

— * Michael Karadjis, “Ukraine myths used to justify Putin’s terror”

• FM #Lavrov: Important objective is to ensure that no threats to our security are created or remain on🇺🇦territory. They say that West did not try to urge Ukraine to engage in military action vs Russia, however, I regard oppressing Russian-speaking people in🇺🇦as genuine aggression

• Let’s talk about the hoax that’s been perpetrated daily for 9 years and that was key to for this illegal invasion and its atrocities: Russian assertions that Ukraine has committed “genocide” against “ethnic Russians” in Donetsk and Luhansk. (thread) (pdf)

• Ukrainian nazis have been killing the poor “people of Donbas” for 8 years, but russia came to save them. What an idiot one should be to believe in such bullshit.

• Tymofiy Mylovanov, “Prigozhyn claims the ministry of defense of Russia made up the reasons for the war in Ukraine. He also accuses various Russian officials of corruption in Donbas”

• Nikolay Mitrokhin, “For Eight Years They Sat There in Cellars Under Fire!” —On One False Narrative About Ukraine

• See: Donbas and Russian invasion of Ukraine/War crimes (list of “liberated”, i.e., destroyed, Ukrainian cities)

See also

• Nidheg/Russian invasion of Ukraine, Reasons

• Russian invasion of Ukraine/Russians against the war

• „Der Präsident will die ganze Ukraine“: So traf Putin die Entscheidung für den Krieg – eine Rekonstruktion (archive)

• Ukraine Fact Check

• Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks
• Invasion of Ukraine
• russia